We are just about to move out of a major health crisis and war is erupting in Europe. Meanwhile, France, one of the leading countries in the world, and a member of the security council, is also preparing to elect its new head of state in less than 40 days (listen to the podcast here).
While all the attention has been on Ukraine in the last few days and for very good reasons, a new report has been made public yesterday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body tasked to assess the science related to climate change.
- There is an increase in the effects of climate change, and it’s more and more obvious.
- The world is adapting and more measures are taken to combat climate change.
- … But these adaptations remain largely insufficient
- There are solutions: and the report talks about “climate resilient development”
- With the use of indigenous knowledge. The report focuses on Africa.
The key take away from this report is how these effects will cause major refugee movements. The IPCC warns how climate change will force many populations to move.
Few years ago already, many of us were already wondering why the Syrian turmoil was causing such a serious and sudden refugee crisis. While most political analysts were emphasizing the political side of the equation, there was a deeper dynamic at play. The Center For Climate and Security , a Washington based organization, cited a link between global warming and what happened in Syria. It even mentioned the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which predicted how yields of rainfed crops in Syria would decline “between 29 and 57 percent from 2010 to 2050.”
To make matters even worse, the relentless pressure of financial speculation on global derivative instruments almost doubled food prices during the same period, making poorer populations even more vulnerable in countries dependent on imports for their food supply. This was especially true for Syria.
This brings us to the current war in Ukraine. The UN estimates that 700,000 civilians have fled Ukraine. The European Union (EU) expects four million people may flee out of Ukraine.
The EU is making it easy for refugees to enter the EU.
However, the current refugee crisis in Ukraine is a situation that many other countries have been facing especially in Africa. This war in Ukraine will also have a major impact on food prices globally. Ukraine is a key producer of wheat and other food products in the world. This will increase tensions on food supplies and make it even more difficult for countries that have a very high degree of dependence on food. We had already warned about these tensions a few weeks ago. Today, March 2 will see the release of the index of the UN FAO Food prices index for February 2022. We will keep you updated.
Let me know if you have questions, and looking forward to talking to you,