So the first round of the French Presidential elections is now revealing a more distinct picture of what really happened yesterday (listen here). Once again, let me remind you the results; 28% for President Macron and 23.3% for Marine Le Pen. They both qualify for the second round on April 24.
Jean Luc Melenchon, with his 22%, came very close to the second spot. He is not able to qualify for the second round but his result is far ahead of the fourth result of 7% by Zemmour.
That means that right from this morning, all the focus is on Melenchon and how his voters will behave. Of course, and as expected, Melenchon already asked his followers that not a single voice should go Le Pen, and he repeated it three times in a row during his speech last night. Yet, some are requesting from him a much more explicit call to vote in favor of Macron. As a result, the pressure will be on him in the coming 14 days to make his positions very loud and clear.
As far as the second round projections are concerned, last night some polling institutes were looking at 51% for Macron and 49% for Le Pen. But this morning, others are toning their projections down with a 54% Macron/46% Le Pen spread. In any case, the race will be very close and tight, and all kinds of speculations are already circulating around from all kinds of political commentators.
Some are predicting a continuation of the political landscape we have experienced so far in the last 5 years, with a renewal of the parliament according to the current distribution of political forces as they are right now in parliament.
Others are envisioning scenarios as wild as a kind of coalition between Le Pen and Melenchon should Le Pen win the second round.
In any case, it’s becoming clear that more than in any other presidential election, the result of the coming general elections in June will define the shape of the leadership for the five years to come. And in that regard, the results achieved by Melenchon is helping him gain further leverage.
Let me know if you have questions and I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Feel free to comment.