Today is April 22, 2022. And we are 2 days away from the second round of the French Presidential elections.
Ahead of Sunday’s second round, the latest polls seem to indicate that Macron is strengthening his lead. As I said in a previous post, the next battle will be for what some already call the 3rd round of the general elections in June.
These work a little differently from the Presidential election where only 2 candidates are admitted in the second round. For the general election, those who can aspire to the second round only have to reach the 12.5% threshold of votes. The campaign between the first and second round is also limited to 1 week instead of 2 weeks.
Given the landscape revealed by the first round, it looks like the game is a lot more open. Let’s have a look at that picture;
Number of Voters First Round of the Presidential Elections:
- Right Wing, and Free Market Politicians, From Macron to Pécresse: 11,400,000
- Far Right, “souverainistes”, Le Pen, Zemmour, Dupont Aignan 11,300,000
- Left Wing, more diversified, Mélenchon, and other Left Wing Candidates 11,200,000
- Abstentionists 12,000,000
Although extreme divisions still exist within these groups, it looks like the battle for the second round will be a lot more open given the rules of the 12.5% threshold.
This is where many, starting with Mélenchon, hope to take a revenge, and even be appointed as Prime Minister, if the emerging majority at the National Assembly warrants it.
That’s what I wanted to share with you.
Let me know if you have questions and I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Feel free to comment.