Here we are a few days away from the first round of the general elections in France. As you know, we had presidential elections at the end of April which reelected President Macron for a second 5 year term (listen further here).
Now we have to go through general elections which are meant to renew the lower house which is called the National Assembly here in France. This election is especially important because it will allow the newly re-elected President Macron to rely on a majority that will allow him to implement his program.
This election is becoming even more important since the length for the presidential mandate has been reduced from seven years to five years and has started to coincide with presidential elections. Prior to the 5 year mandate, presidents would stay 7 years in power. So the general elections at the National Assembly would not necessarily coincide with the Presidential Elections. Prior to that 5 year mandate, France was used to witnessing a majority that was shaping itself according to the more traditional left/right political streams of influence. This new mandate is shattering that traditional way of political practice.
Moreover, this year’s presidential election revealed a surprising fragmentation of the political pillars of influence. Rather than the traditional left and right pillars both closer to the center, the second round of the presidential election showed three clearly defined forces with a distinct polarization for a radical form of action, to the left and to the right. The third man of the election to the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, realized that the new context at the National Assembly is offering an opportunity for a left wing coalition to garner the needed 290 seats for an outright majority. The latest polls confirm that the left wing coalition, also known as NUPES, is very close to achieving such a result. This is indeed where we are heading, only one week ahead of the first round of the General Election.
Let me know if you have questions and I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Feel free to comment. (listen further here)