The left wing during this first round of the general elections in 2022 is not all similar to 2017. Back in 2017, the left wing was disorganized and had no coordination. That’s not what happened this time in 2022, (listen further here).
La France insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the French Communist Party (PCF) and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV ) managed to unite under a single banner. And we have to admit that the result of this first round is quite promising: the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) got results which are equal to those achieved by presidential coalition, Ensemble! (Together!), with 25.7% of the vote, for both coalitions. This is allowing the left wing Nupes to qualify for the second round in more than 500 constituencies.
Although Jean-Luc Mélenchon cannot claim that he can be chosen as Prime Minister, these results reveal that this new left wing coalition was well received by voters. It is ultimately placing Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the main opponent to President Macron, a role that he is snatching from Marine Le Pen, who came second at the Presidential elections a few weeks ago.
NUPES and RN are expected to be directly confronted on June 19: There are 59 direct battles between the left and the far right. The question now is about the recommendations that the presidential party Ensemble! is expressing. Few weeks ago during the presidential election, the left wing advised its voters that not a single vote should go to the far right. This largely contributed to Macron’s victory. Now, the left wing NUPES expects the same favor. Ensemble! is also expressing the same recommendation but on a case by case basis. And this is triggering some controversy. The Ensemble! the presidential coalition does not want to be perceived as supporting the NUPES explicitly. It could undermine potential connections and agreements with the other right wing party Les Républicains, especially in the case of direct confrontations where NUPES is opposed to Les Républicains. To be continued …
In the end, this is only the first round and all projections for the second round may not mean much. Most polling institutes are projecting that the left wing coalition can expect between 170 and 220 parliamentary seats. Compare this with the results achieved in 2017, when the same left wing parties only reached around fifty parliamentarians seats.
For Ensemble!, the presidential party, the projections are at 258 to 298 seats for the second round. This is barely 8 seats above the 289 majority needed for President Macron to implement his platform comfortably.
However, as an external observer, you might also wonder why the projections in seats for the second round are so different while both coalitions, NUPES and Ensemble! are at the same level, percentage wise.
To make it short and straightforward, as much as I can, there are 2 reasons that explain that discrepancy. First, in the first round, a vote is deemed valid only if it reaches 50% or more of the votes expressed while at the same time these votes must represent at least 25% of voters registered in the voting lists. As a result, there can be a large gap between the results of a party at a national level and the local results. The second reason has to do with the way projections are done by polling institutes. Indeed, in the case of a direct confrontation between the Ensemble! coalition and NUPES, during the second round on June 19, the polling institute will generally assume that the result will turn out in favor of Ensemble! This assumption alone makes the projections highly volatile. It is important to take them with a pinch of salt and to read them very carefully.
That’s what I wanted to share with you,
Let me know if you have questions and I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Feel free to comment.
When the causes that the people are behind are more important to them than the system, then the system is in jeopardy