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France: Further Thoughts on the Rubik’s Cube of French Politics

We are still few days away from the second round and the key highlight of the first round was abstention at a record 52.5%. At the presidential election, we saw the emergence of 3 blocks, while at the current parliamentary election, we see 2 blocs (Listen further here).

At this point, several possible scenarios:

So these are the possible scenarios. But they are still based on assumptions that remain irrelevant. So much can still happen. Such projections do not mean anything at this point. These are 577 single elections.

In any case, the probability that France will be difficult to govern with a grid-locked National Assembly looms high on the horizon. Pension reforms, spending cuts, to just name a few, will be very difficult to pass.

Between now and Sunday, there are several variables that can still play a role:

That’s what I wanted to share with you,

Let me know if you have questions and I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Feel free to comment.




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